Will The Lion in Winter Win the Epsom Derby?
Can Aidan O’Brien complete a second hat-trick of Epsom Derby wins? The Irish trainer achieved the feat between 2012 and 2014 and has won this classic for the past two years.
O’Brien has trained the winner of the Epsom Derby on a record ten occasions. His main hope for win number 11 is The Lion in Winter who is currently the 7/2 favourite to win on Saturday June 7 with these horse racing offers in the UK.
As a two-year-old the current Epsom Derby favourite won both of his races. The Group 3 Acomb Stakes was won but that was run over seven furlongs. The big question therefore is whether The Lion in Winter can be as effective over a-mile-and-a-half.
Some clues will be revealed when the O’Brien runner takes part in the Dante Stakes at York which is run over ten-and-a- a-half furlongs. His sire is Sea the Stars and that’s promising as that runner was the Epsom Derby winner in 2009.
O’Brien has an impressive team set to head to Epsom for this year’s Derby. Delacroix is 8/1 to win the race. A couple of Group 3 races have already been won by this contender. Not every successful two-year-old repeats that success the following season.
A promising sign therefore is that Delacroix has already come out this year and won a Group 3 ten-furlong race at Leopardstown. The extra two furlongs in the Epsom Derby could see him come on for that run. His sire is Dubawi who has already produced four winners of the 2000 Guineas and also a winner of the mile-and-a-half Epsom Oaks.
Also from the O’Brien year is Twain who again is 8/1 in the market. This unbeaten runner has had a couple of wins but they were on soft and heavy ground. Some downpours in early June wouldn’t be bad news for this contender.
Who can stop Aidan O’Brien from getting another Epsom Derby winner? Charlie Appelby will be fancying his chances with the current second favourite Ruling Court who is priced up at 4/1. The three-year-old has already had classic success this year with a win in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket as per horse.bet UK.
Appelby has trained two Epsom Derby winners, most recently Adayar in 2021. Ruling Court has had four runs but is not an unbeaten colt. He was beaten in last year’s Tattersalls Stakes and was third behind The Lion in Winter. That was run over seven furlongs and Ruling Court was two-and-a-quarter lengths behind the current Epsom Derby favourite.
Just how much improvement will come over the longer distance holds a major key to his chances of success in June. His sire is Justify who won the American Triple Crown and has raced over a-mile-and-a-half.
We’ve so far looked at the top four in the market. Prices will fluctuate in the coming weeks but at present that quartet are the only ones with single figure odds. Next in the market is another Aiden O’Brien runner. Mount Kilimanjaro is 20/1 to win the Epsom Derby but has won a race already this season.
That was a Class 1 race at Chester run over ten-and-a-half furlongs. He only just got home by a neck from High Stock. That was a big improvement on his seasonal reappearance when only third on the all-weather at Dundalk. His win at Chester was Mount Kilimanjaro’s second win in five races, the other at Longchamp last October.
Last year saw him finish second behind stablemate Twain in the Group 1 Criterium International. It’s not been confirmed yet whether he’ll be trying to win the Epsom Derby or try his luck in the French Derby.
Green Impact is trained by Mrs John Harrington and is 25/1 to win the Epsom Derby. As a two-year-old this contender twice beat Delacroix and won a Group 2 race over a mile. Improvement is needed though after a poor sixth in the 2000 Guineas, finishing six-and-a-quarter lengths behind the winner Ruling Court. He dwelt at the start and can’t afford to keep doing that if wanting to win at Epsom.
The final contender we’ll look at is another Aidan O’Brien runner. Lambourn is 25/1 to win the Epsom Derby but we do know the distance of this race won’t trouble him. His last run produced victory in the Chester Vase and that’s run over half a furlong longer than the Epsom Derby.
O’Brien was delighted with the success, particularly with it being at Chester. The trainer commented that horses “learn so much when they go to Chester.” Lambourn certainly looks good each-way value in what promises to be a fascinating Epsom Derby.