Will The Lion in Winter Win the Epsom Derby?

Can Aidan O’Brien complete a second hat-trick of Epsom Derby wins? The Irish trainer achieved the feat between 2012 and 2014 and has won this classic for the past two years.

O’Brien has trained the winner of the Epsom Derby on a record ten occasions. His main hope for win number 11 is The Lion in Winter who is currently the 7/2 favourite to win on Saturday June 7 with these horse racing offers in the UK.

As a two-year-old the current Epsom Derby favourite won both of his races. The Group 3 Acomb Stakes was won but that was run over seven furlongs. The big question therefore is whether The Lion in Winter can be as effective over a-mile-and-a-half.

Some clues will be revealed when the O’Brien runner takes part in the Dante Stakes at York which is run over ten-and-a- a-half furlongs. His sire is Sea the Stars and that’s promising as that runner was the Epsom Derby winner in 2009.

O’Brien has an impressive team set to head to Epsom for this year’s Derby. Delacroix is 8/1 to win the race. A couple of Group 3 races have already been won by this contender. Not every successful two-year-old repeats that success the following season.

A promising sign therefore is that Delacroix has already come out this year and won a Group 3 ten-furlong race at Leopardstown. The extra two furlongs in the Epsom Derby could see him come on for that run. His sire is Dubawi who has already produced four winners of the 2000 Guineas and also a winner of the mile-and-a-half Epsom Oaks.

Also from the O’Brien year is Twain who again is 8/1 in the market. This unbeaten runner has had a couple of wins but they were on soft and heavy ground. Some downpours in early June wouldn’t be bad news for this contender.

Who can stop Aidan O’Brien from getting another Epsom Derby winner? Charlie Appelby will be fancying his chances with the current second favourite Ruling Court who is priced up at 4/1. The three-year-old has already had classic success this year with a win in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket as per horse.bet UK.

Appelby has trained two Epsom Derby winners, most recently Adayar in 2021. Ruling Court has had four runs but is not an unbeaten colt. He was beaten in last year’s Tattersalls Stakes and was third behind The Lion in Winter. That was run over seven furlongs and Ruling Court was two-and-a-quarter lengths behind the current Epsom Derby favourite.

Just how much improvement will come over the longer distance holds a major key to his chances of success in June. His sire is Justify who won the American Triple Crown and has raced over a-mile-and-a-half.

We’ve so far looked at the top four in the market. Prices will fluctuate in the coming weeks but at present that quartet are the only ones with single figure odds. Next in the market is another Aiden O’Brien runner. Mount Kilimanjaro is 20/1 to win the Epsom Derby but has won a race already this season.

That was a Class 1 race at Chester run over ten-and-a-half furlongs. He only just got home by a neck from High Stock. That was a big improvement on his seasonal reappearance when only third on the all-weather at Dundalk. His win at Chester was Mount Kilimanjaro’s second win in five races, the other at Longchamp last October.

Last year saw him finish second behind stablemate Twain in the Group 1 Criterium International. It’s not been confirmed yet whether he’ll be trying to win the Epsom Derby or try his luck in the French Derby.

Green Impact is trained by Mrs John Harrington and is 25/1 to win the Epsom Derby. As a two-year-old this contender twice beat Delacroix and won a Group 2 race over a mile. Improvement is needed though after a poor sixth in the 2000 Guineas, finishing six-and-a-quarter lengths behind the winner Ruling Court. He dwelt at the start and can’t afford to keep doing that if wanting to win at Epsom.

The final contender we’ll look at is another Aidan O’Brien runner. Lambourn is 25/1 to win the Epsom Derby but we do know the distance of this race won’t trouble him. His last run produced victory in the Chester Vase and that’s run over half a furlong longer than the Epsom Derby.

O’Brien was delighted with the success, particularly with it being at Chester. The trainer commented that horses “learn so much when they go to Chester.” Lambourn certainly looks good each-way value in what promises to be a fascinating Epsom Derby.

The Best Female Jockeys of All Time and Their Greatest Wins

Horse racing has long been considered a male-dominated sport, but over the years, female jockeys have broken barriers and proven themselves as formidable competitors on the track. From historic victories to groundbreaking achievements, these women have redefined what it means to be a champion in the racing world. Here’s a look at some of the best female jockeys of all time and their most remarkable wins.

1. Julie Krone – The First Woman to Win a Triple Crown Race

Julie Krone is one of the most accomplished female jockeys in history. She made history in 1993 by becoming the first woman to win a Triple Crown race when she rode Colonial Affair to victory in the Belmont Stakes. Over her career, she secured more than 3,700 wins and was inducted into the National Museum of Racing’s Hall of Fame in 2000.

Greatest Win: 1993 Belmont Stakes

Krone’s victory aboard Colonial Affair was a defining moment in horse racing, proving that female jockeys could compete and win at the highest levels. This win solidified her reputation and encouraged more women to enter the sport, despite the challenges they faced in a male-dominated industry. Krone’s perseverance and talent opened doors for many aspiring female jockeys.

2. Hayley Turner – The Trailblazer for British Female Jockeys

Hayley Turner is one of the most successful female jockeys in British horse racing. She became the first woman to ride 100 winners in a calendar year in the UK and has since inspired many young women to pursue careers in the sport.

Greatest Win: 2011 July Cup

Turner became the first woman to win a British Group 1 race when she rode Dream Ahead to victory in the July Cup at Newmarket, breaking new ground for female riders in the UK. Turner has also competed internationally and proven that female jockeys can achieve consistent success at the highest levels. Her career is a testament to the growing acceptance and recognition of women in horse racing.

3. Chantal Sutherland – The Canadian Star

Chantal Sutherland is a highly successful jockey known for her wins in both Canada and the United States. Often compared to Julie Krone, Sutherland has competed in some of the biggest races in North America. Her career spans several decades, and she has been an ambassador for women in the sport, showing that female jockeys can succeed against top male competitors.

Greatest Win: 2012 Santa Anita Handicap

Riding Game On Dude, Sutherland became the first female jockey to win the Santa Anita Handicap, one of the most prestigious races in the United States. This victory further demonstrated that women could handle the pressure of high-stakes racing and succeed at the highest level of competition.

4. Rosie Napravnik – Dominating the Kentucky Circuit

Rosie Napravnik emerged as one of the most dominant female jockeys in recent history. She was the first woman to win the Kentucky Oaks twice and the highest-earning female jockey in American history. Napravnik’s career has been filled with record-breaking achievements, and her skill on the track made her a fan favorite.

Greatest Win: 2012 & 2014 Kentucky Oaks

Napravnik won the Kentucky Oaks with Believe You Can in 2012 and Untapable in 2014, cementing her reputation as one of the best female jockeys in the sport. Her ability to navigate competitive races and make decisive moves in crucial moments showcased her exceptional talent and strategic mindset.

5. Hollie Doyle – The Rising Star

Hollie Doyle is a modern-day powerhouse in horse racing. She has shattered multiple records in the UK and continues to push the boundaries for female jockeys. Her dedication, hard work, and resilience have earned her respect in the industry, and she continues to set new benchmarks for women in horse racing.

Greatest Win: 2020 British Champions Sprint Stakes

Doyle made history when she won the British Champions Sprint Stakes on Glen Shiel, becoming the first female jockey to win a race on British Champions Day. This win, along with her numerous other achievements, proves that female jockeys are not only competitive but capable of excelling at the highest level of horse racing.

The Impact of Female Jockeys in Horse Racing

The success of these incredible female jockeys has paved the way for future generations of women in the sport. Their victories have not only earned them recognition but have also proven that skill, determination, and perseverance matter more than gender in horse racing.

The Challenges They Faced

Despite their success, female jockeys have had to overcome significant challenges, including:

  • Limited opportunities – Women were historically denied chances to ride in major races.

  • Stereotypes and bias – Many believed that female jockeys were not strong enough to handle the physical demands of the sport.

  • Lack of mentorship – Early female jockeys had few role models or mentors to guide them.

The Progress in Women’s Horse Racing

Thanks to pioneers like Julie Krone, Hayley Turner, and Rosie Napravnik, the racing industry is gradually becoming more inclusive. Today, more women are entering the sport, and race organizers are offering more opportunities for female jockeys to compete in prestigious races.

The Future of Women in Horse Racing

The future looks bright for female jockeys as the industry continues to evolve. Here are some promising signs for the next generation:

  • More Women Entering the Sport – The number of female jockeys is increasing worldwide, and more women are securing top rides in major races.

  • Increased Support and Sponsorships – As the achievements of female jockeys gain recognition, sponsors and investors are supporting them more than ever.

  • Breaking More Records – With continued dedication and talent, female jockeys are expected to set new records and redefine the standards of excellence in horse racing.

Conclusion

The contributions of female jockeys to horse racing are undeniable. From Julie Krone’s groundbreaking Belmont Stakes victory to Hollie Doyle’s record-breaking wins, these women have left an indelible mark on the sport. Their greatest wins are not just milestones in their careers but also significant moments in horse racing history. As more women continue to rise in the sport, the future looks bright for female jockeys worldwide.

By continuing to challenge norms and achieve greatness on the track, these exceptional women inspire a new generation of aspiring jockeys. Their impact extends beyond the racing world, proving that determination and talent can break barriers and reshape history. As female jockeys gain more recognition, we can expect even greater achievements in the years to come.

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How Do You Build a Betting Plan for the Full Kentucky Derby Day Card?

Kentucky Derby Day isn’t just about one race—it’s a full afternoon of elite-level competition. With as many as 14 races on the card at Churchill Downs, bettors face both opportunity and risk. Building a smart betting plan requires more than picking a Derby winner – and the complexities can be offputting to those new to the racing scene. It involves managing your bankroll, identifying value across the card, and timing your bets strategically to stay in control throughout the day.

In this article we’ll break down everything you need to know to make the most of the Derby – and perhaps walk away a winner.

Know the Full Race Schedule Before You Start

Start by reviewing the entire Kentucky Derby Day race schedule. Most of the early races feature stakes-quality fields, especially the undercard events leading into the main event. Identify the race numbers, post times, and purse levels. This allows you to allocate your time and money effectively.

Make note of any races featuring strong fields or familiar trainers—these are often where hidden value lives. While the Derby itself may be the biggest draw, many bettors find success in the supporting races where the betting pools are slightly less volatile.

Set a Bankroll and Break It Down

The biggest mistake casual bettors make on Derby Day is burning through their funds too early. Set a clear total bankroll before the first race. Then divide it across the entire card. Allocate a slightly higher amount for races you’ve researched heavily or that offer large betting pools.

Save a portion for the Derby itself, but don’t be afraid to invest earlier if the odds and setups look favorable. One effective approach is to divide your bankroll into thirds—early card, mid card, and late card—with room for adjustments depending on how your day is progressing.

Choose a Variety of Bet Types

Spreading your money across different types of bets helps reduce risk and increase the entertainment potential of your day at the races (even if you’re attending virtually). Start the day with conservative wagers—win, place, or show—while gauging how the track is playing. Later, introduce exactas and trifectas in races where you have confidence in the field. On Derby Day, the early races can act as a live prep session. Take note of how speed holds or fades, how inside or outside posts are performing, and how favorites are faring.

By the time the feature race approaches, reviewing the Kentucky Derby odds can help further refine your approach. Odds fluctuations often reflect late betting surges and can confirm or challenge your initial read. Let those numbers guide whether you play it safe with a favorite or reach for added value with a less obvious contender.

Watch for Multi-Race Opportunities

The Derby Day card often features multi-race wagers like the Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6. These bets demand precision but offer massive returns. The key is to avoid overextending your ticket with too many combinations.

Identify one or two “single” horses you feel strongly about and build around them. Use multiple entries in the races that look more open. If you plan to attempt a Pick 4 or Pick 5, start your ticket early in the day before the fatigue of multiple races sets in.

Adjust Your Strategy Based on Race Results

Each race on Derby Day gives you information. Pay attention to the pace scenario, winning margins, and how horses are finishing. If speed is dominating early, that could carry into later events. If closers are sweeping late, adjust your handicapping for the Derby and final races. Bettors who remain flexible often outperform those who lock in picks early and never adapt.

Save Energy and Focus for the Main Event

While it’s tempting to go all-in early, remember the Derby itself may offer the best value of the day. The field is large, the pools are massive, and the odds tend to drift as public money floods in. Use the day’s early races to sharpen your view on jockey trends, trainer form, and track bias. Then bring everything together when you sit down to finalize your Derby ticket. A well-paced strategy not only protects your bankroll but positions you for success when it matters most.

How Often Do the Favorites Win the Kentucky Derby?

As one of the world’s great blue-chip horse races, the Kentucky Derby’s history is similar to other classic horse races in that its roll of honour is littered with shock winners and dominant favourites. The race is open to 20 of the best thoroughbreds in the business, so there is always stiff competition in the Run for the Roses.

It is, of course, a huge betting event, and the Kentucky Derby betting odds will be scrutinsed all the way up to the off-time on Saturday 3rd May. This year’s favorite is Journalism, a fascinating horse with four big wins already under his belt. Yet, in truth, Journalism will be up against it, as he’ll have 19 other superstars aiming to make a mockery of his favourite status.

Yet, how do the favourites tend to fare historically in America’s greatest horse race? By and large, the strike rate is around 35%. You can look at that in a glass half full or half empty way. The favourites win about a third of the time, but they also lose about two-thirds of the time. In effect, the Kentucky Derby’s strike rate of favourites tends to mirror US horse racing at large, which also sees a strike rate somewhere between 33-37%.

Trends can form over extended periods

However, there are some interesting caveats, not least historical trends. For example, from 2013-2018 we saw an unprecedented streak of favourites winning six Kentucky Derby races in a row: Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014), American Pharoah (2015), Nyquist (2016), Always Dreaming (2017), and Justify (2018). Two of those horses, American Pharoah and Justify, went on to win the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, becoming the 12th and 13th winners of the Triple Crown winners.

Nonetheless, while that golden period for favourites occurred in the mid-2010s, it’s worth noting that the reverse has happened in recent years. In fact, we have seen some huge outsiders win the Kentucky Derby, including Rich Strike, who won with a starting price (referred to as the morning line odds in the US) of 80/1 in 2022. Last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, came in at a price of 18/1, so it was another good year for bettors looking for a bit of value.

Questions can only be answered on the track

In effect, the Kentucky Derby can be a difficult race to parse out. The quality of the field is never in doubt, yet there are always questions about how horses – even great horses – handle the specifics of the race itself. It’s almost always the case that your selection will not have raced against a field of 20 horses before. Journalism, for instance, made his way to the race running in races with five starters in California over the last few months, so he will have to adapt to different conditions. The Kentucky Derby can also be a little longer in distance than what some horses are accustomed to.

That said, it’s all about putting the pieces of the puzzle together for those predicting the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. Plenty of factors – trainer experience, jockey nous, stall number, the weather – will come into play. The odds will shift, too, based on various factors in the lead-up to the race. But it remains to be seen whether Journalism, who looks guaranteed to start as the morning line favourite, will buck the trend of betting market leads coming up short in this biggest of races. As ever, a shock could be on the cards in the 2025 Run for the Roses.

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