4 Horse Racing Betting Strategies You Can Use in the Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby is fast approaching, and if you’re looking to join in the fun, then this is the best time to learn some horse racing betting strategies. The Kentucky Derby is one of the major annual events in horse racing, and it signals the start of the Triple Crown event.

There are a lot of betting strategies on the internet, but if you’re looking for ones that are easy to understand and compelling enough, then you’re in luck. This article will discuss some horse racing strategies that are not simple but will also give you a good chance of winning your bets. Here are some of them.

The Statistical Lay

To lay a horse simply means that you’ll be betting against a runner. To use this strategy effectively, you will have to find a race with ten or more runners. Once you have found one, you need to identify the three favourites for that specific race. Then, you need to find horses that have odds between 3.0 and 5.8 and lay against the one with the lowest odds possible. According to the stats, you would have a chance of winning more or less 80%.

This is because statistical analysis shows that horses within these odds have a chance of winning only 17% of the time. This means that if you lay a horse within those odds, these prospects should realize a profit because the bet’s odds are significant.

The Surface Switch

Horses, just like human athletes, have strengths and weaknesses. One factor that can make or break horses is the surface type of the race they will be running in. Thoroughbreds are either heavy-footed or light-footed. For heavy-footed horses, running on dirt surfaces can significantly reduce their speed because their hooves burrow into the dirt due to the power of their steps. This is especially true if the surface is muddy.

However, when they run on a synthetic surface type, their steps would be more potent without hindering their hooves, resulting in an increased speed. For light-footed horses, they can run in dirt tracks just fine because their hooves don’t burrow into the mud. They can also run fine on synthetic surfaces but not as much as heavy-footed horses.

Now, why is this important? This aspect is the deciding factor for the surface switch. This occurs when a horse suddenly doesn’t race on a specific surface and begins racing on another.

Let’s say that a horse has been racing on dirt for a long time but has never really excelled. Of course, as a bettor, you would ignore this horse. But then it switched surfaces and started higher in its placement.

The key to making money on this angle is that you should never ignore a horse on its first try on a new surface. An excellent way to tell this is to look if the trainer has switched surfaces in the past. The horse would be a good bet if the trainer regularly wins by constantly switching surfaces.

The Beaten Favourite

Even though a horse is highly successful in horse racing, it doesn’t mean that it will win all the time. That said, when a favourite horse is highly touted in the top kentucky derby contenders but is beaten in its last race, the weight of public opinion will be against that horse in the next race. They would think that the horse is already past its prime and will never win again.

However, it’s not always the case. When that happens, the wave of bets will be against that horse, making the oddsmaker be forced to increase the odds on that runner. This is a good time to bet on that horse because of the potential payout that you can win.

The False Favourite

The false favourite is a horse that is a favourite falsely assigned by bookmakers. They do this to fool punters who blindly back the favourites all the time. This is usually done in smaller events, but sometimes, some bookmakers do this during significant events like the Kentucky Derby. For this strategy, laying against the false favourite is the best move. Laying a favourite is a viral strategy, and when it’s done correctly, it can be very profitable.

However, take note that just like any other horse racing betting strategy out there, you need to do your research first and not just blindly lay the favourite. Of course, there’s an element of risk involved; that’s why you need to do your research to determine if the favourite is false or not. But the risk is worth it because the payout is usually significant.

Final Words

There are a lot more betting strategies you can find for horse racing. You can find them almost anywhere, but the ones listed above are proven effective most of the time. Of course, they don’t guarantee wins, and in fact, no betting strategies can guarantee you wins. But by using these strategies, you will be giving yourself a significant chance of winning the big bucks.