Can you pick a winning just by looking at it?

“Just” is the operative word here. Racecourse punters have an advantage over their stay-at-home counterparts in as much as they can scrutinise each of the runners in a race, in terms of its physical and mental state, in the paddock immediately beforehand. However, it is often said that paddock inspection is an art, not a science, and is best employed in conjuction with in-depth analysis of the race on paper, rather than in isolation. Indeed, assessing the physical fitness and demeanour of horses at close quarters may often be more useful for eliminating them from your calculations, rather than finalising a selection.

Physically, look for a horse with well-developed muscles, particularly in its rump and hind legs. A hard-trained, fit horse will appear taught, with little excess body weight; its rib definition may be slightly visible, as may a deep indentation on the upper hind leg, known as a ‘poverty line’. The more recently a horse ran at, or close to, its best – which can be determined by looking at the formbook – the more confident you can be that it is fit and ready to do itself justice. Look, too, for a horse that walks calmly, but confidently, with a smooth, steady stride. A glossy coat and bright, but soft, eyes are other positive signs of good health.

Behaviourally, a horse that handles the preliminaries in a cool, calm and collected manner is less likely to waste vital energy – and therefore less likely to underperform in the race itself – than one that is fractious and on edge. Typical responses to physical or psychological stress include sweating, flared nostrils, as a result of increased breathing effort, high head carriage and tail swishing. Stressed horses may also prove difficult to handle, bucking, rearing and refusing to cooperate when being mounted and ridden.