How Often Do the Favorites Win the Kentucky Derby?
As one of the world’s great blue-chip horse races, the Kentucky Derby’s history is similar to other classic horse races in that its roll of honour is littered with shock winners and dominant favourites. The race is open to 20 of the best thoroughbreds in the business, so there is always stiff competition in the Run for the Roses.
It is, of course, a huge betting event, and the Kentucky Derby betting odds will be scrutinsed all the way up to the off-time on Saturday 3rd May. This year’s favorite is Journalism, a fascinating horse with four big wins already under his belt. Yet, in truth, Journalism will be up against it, as he’ll have 19 other superstars aiming to make a mockery of his favourite status.
Yet, how do the favourites tend to fare historically in America’s greatest horse race? By and large, the strike rate is around 35%. You can look at that in a glass half full or half empty way. The favourites win about a third of the time, but they also lose about two-thirds of the time. In effect, the Kentucky Derby’s strike rate of favourites tends to mirror US horse racing at large, which also sees a strike rate somewhere between 33-37%.
Trends can form over extended periods
However, there are some interesting caveats, not least historical trends. For example, from 2013-2018 we saw an unprecedented streak of favourites winning six Kentucky Derby races in a row: Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014), American Pharoah (2015), Nyquist (2016), Always Dreaming (2017), and Justify (2018). Two of those horses, American Pharoah and Justify, went on to win the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, becoming the 12th and 13th winners of the Triple Crown winners.
Nonetheless, while that golden period for favourites occurred in the mid-2010s, it’s worth noting that the reverse has happened in recent years. In fact, we have seen some huge outsiders win the Kentucky Derby, including Rich Strike, who won with a starting price (referred to as the morning line odds in the US) of 80/1 in 2022. Last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, came in at a price of 18/1, so it was another good year for bettors looking for a bit of value.
Questions can only be answered on the track
In effect, the Kentucky Derby can be a difficult race to parse out. The quality of the field is never in doubt, yet there are always questions about how horses – even great horses – handle the specifics of the race itself. It’s almost always the case that your selection will not have raced against a field of 20 horses before. Journalism, for instance, made his way to the race running in races with five starters in California over the last few months, so he will have to adapt to different conditions. The Kentucky Derby can also be a little longer in distance than what some horses are accustomed to.
That said, it’s all about putting the pieces of the puzzle together for those predicting the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. Plenty of factors – trainer experience, jockey nous, stall number, the weather – will come into play. The odds will shift, too, based on various factors in the lead-up to the race. But it remains to be seen whether Journalism, who looks guaranteed to start as the morning line favourite, will buck the trend of betting market leads coming up short in this biggest of races. As ever, a shock could be on the cards in the 2025 Run for the Roses.