Is betting on debutantes worth it?

Punters are a varied breed. Some like National Hunt racing, others love Flat racing. Within both of those code are a plethora of appoaches. For example, some may only bet on horses which race in Selling and Claiming races. Perhaps you are the bumper specialist and that’s your angle. Each to their own. It makes sense to follow what works for you, and to have a niche. It is as close as you will get to mastering your expertise. Not one person knows everything to a high level so where you place your focus matters.

Most gamblers are frightened of betting on  debutantes. That blank slate. ‘How do you pick between the lines of a 20-field maiden comprising solely of debutantes?

This is the funny part. Most gambler think someone who bets on debutantes has lost the plot. They simple cannot know what they are doing in their stance. They think it literally makes no sense at all why someone would favour betting on this type of horse compared with a form horse with proven ability. They follow the crowd. In any area risk and finance related, does that really get you anywhere? What did those who side stepped the likes of cryptocurrenty (bitcoin etc) and other since recognised opportunities gain? Nothing.

Now… I don’t want to be too dissmissive to any readers who think the same because there is a lot to be said for betting on proven form horses. But what are you going to do if there is a debutante or two in a race you are betting? Perhaps you just stick your head in the sand, like an ostrich, and pretend it doesn’t exist? Just ignore it. Don’t bet because you are worried about it but don’t understand the pros and cons.

The reality is that debutantes can make very good bets if you understand what you are doing.

Do you want to have a low barrier to entry or a high one? Everyone knows about the low barrier. It’s routine, everyday, run-of-the-mill. Logically and strategically you want to know a subject which isn’t easy to master and has a high barrier to entry or at least to be able to think outside of the box, and here that is betting on debutantes. In the financial world take bitcoin for example and the best bitcoin casino sites out there. In the early days, it took a combination of both rationality thinking out of leftfield to see its potential. Most were blind to it and a massive opportunity passed them by. 

So what are the best ways of assessing a two-year-old debutante horse?

There are a few ways:

Horse Trainer:

Probably the best way of assessing a debutante is by horse trainer. It is a fact that certain trainers specialise in winning with debutantes while other either have no juveniles in training or no record or intention of achieving this goal. You may wonder what intention has to do with anything. It has everything to do with everything. Horses don’t win on debut without intention. The likes of Archie Watson train their horses to be fit and ready. There are many others who can win on debut but it is far from easy and compared with the average strike rate of juveniles on their second start much poorer statistically. If you want to understand betting on debutantes you need to understand a trainer first.

Betting:

The betting can be very important to the chance of a debutant winning on its first run. However, for many horses it means nothing at all. You may be thinking well that doesn’t help much. The point about betting and starting odds relates to the horse trainer. Certain horse trainers very rarely win on debut at speculative odds. In fact, some only win when their debutantes are short priced. If you don’t know this information you will be betting blind or have little hope of winning.

Breeding & Sales price:

There is little doubt the best horses have the best breeding and often cost a lot of money if going through the sales ring. However, there is no guarantee that a £1M horse will win on debut. In fact, the following year it may be sold for a fraction of the price. There is an incentive for many high-profile breeders to make sure sales prices don’t go down. And in some sense these wealthy individuals don’t lose any sleep when an expensive horse fails to deliver. But there is a correlation between a well bred horse and sales tag compared to those who don’t. Out of the three suggestions I would favour this one least.

Conclusion:

In truth, most punters are scared of betting debutantes for good reason. They don’t understand what they are doing. There are ways to appreciate the better debutantes but it takes skill. Horse trainers, betting and breeding and sales price all help the novice to become an expert. But with all aspects of gambling, the pursuit of knowledge never comes easy and always at a price.