Is there value on big odds bets?
Gambling makes normally rational people act irrationally. It’s as though their brain turned from grey matter into strawberry jelly. For some, deep inside their skull is a Bird’s trifle, the type your mum made for you as a child. A layer of jelly with sponge fingers, custard, perhaps with bananas, and dream topping sprinkled with hundreds and thousands. As the irrational punter reads the Racing Post, there head lurching left to right as they scan every column inch, the trifle slips and slides like sludge.
To be honest, most punters may as well have sponge fingers. They act as if Bird brained and they are definitely a trifle mad.
Before gambling, stop and think what you are doing. Consider what is your motivation to bet. Reason if you have any realistic hope of beating the layers. Don’t focus on the ample statistics of Lady Luck.
You know she’s employed by the casinos, hey?
This may be an exclusive but, logically, we know it’s true.
I remember going to a casino many years ago. A beautiful lady walked up to me. We chatted for a while. Her name was Veronica Dupont. She said: ‘You can call me VD.’ That just proves there are many and varied women at Las Vegas!
Perhaps Lady Luck does a little side hustle too.
We’ve already learned that most gamblers aren’t particularly skilled in the gambling department.
However, the problems don’t just stop at gambling for the uninformed. The seasoned, half-talented punter also has a blind spot. They are very unlikely to bet on a horse at speculative odds. I’m talking double-carpet plus (that’s odds of 33/1 and bigger) not a brochure from Axminster and a handmade rug.
My Uncle Gordon was a favourite’s man.
He never had a winner over 10/1. You know why? Because he didn’t bet on horses at big odds. I have no idea why he stuck to favourites like glue. I guess he’d seen some success betting at shorter than longer odds. I can understand his reasoning. Each to their own. He was a decent bloke. He enjoyed his racing and I admired his Royal Doulton racing figurine perched on his mantelpiece. I remember the Robert Sangster racing silks. I’m pretty sure it was The Minstrel who won the Epsom Derby in 1977.
I liked Uncle Gordon.
Most punters simply cannot bring themselves to bet on a horse at long odds. They’d rather bet on the odds-on shot. However, to beat the odds you really need to find those speculative-priced horses. Now, I’m not saying it’s easy to find a winner at big odds. Clearly, they don’t win as much as the favourite. But that’s the whole point about gambling on skill-based sports. You are meant to use some aspect of skill or knowledge to help you bet selectively and find value.
My brother has the knack of betting on horses that win at speculative prices. He has a framed print of a racehorse and each time a 100/1+ horse wins he writes its name on the glass as a reminder of a very good day. He has seven or eight winners at 100/1 or bigger. It proves it can happen. We’ve all seen the rag (outsider) hose up. We let it pass us by without thought or reflection. It’s a mistake. You don’t bet on horses at big odds so it doesn’t matter.
Whether you bet on favourites or stick to 999/1 on the betting exchanges the point of this article isn’t to force your hand but to simply say: ‘If you don’t bet on big priced horses you won’t have big priced winners.’
Perhaps you’re happy with your approach.
But I’m pretty sure, in fact convinced, there is more value in those bigger odds than you will find in the next favourite.
Betting long term is about finding value.