What is the average official rating of 2,000 Guineas winners in the past decade?

Run over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket in early May, the 2,000 Guineas is the first Classic of the season. The race, which, at the time of writing, is worth £525,000 in guaranteed prize money, is open to three-year-old colts and fillies, but not geldings. According to the race conditions, to be eligible to run in the 2,000 Guineas horses must have achieved an official rating of 80 or higher, as allotted by a team of handicappers at the British Horseracing Authority (BHA). Horses yet to qualify for an official rating may also be eligible, provided (i) they have run at least once and (ii) their performance merits a provisional rating of 80 or higher in the eyes of the handicappers.

Official ratings indicate, numerically, the perceived ability of horses. The higher the rating, the better the horse, such that a horse rated, say, 100 is considered 10lb superior to a horse rated 90, which equates to approximately 4½ lengths over a mile, as in the 2,000 Guineas. Of course, the 2,000 Guineas is a Group 1 contest, in which eligible colts carry 9st 2lb and fillies 8st, regardless of their official ratings. However, the rating stipulation ensures an appropriate entry level and, from a betting perspective, is useful for assessing the relative merits of each entry before the race is run.

In the past decade, the average official rating of 2,000 Guineas winners is marginally short of 115. The highest-rated winner in that period was Churchill (122), who in 2017 only won the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, but also the Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh three weeks later. The joint-lowest-rated winners were Poetic Flare and Notable Speech (both 109) in 2021 and 2024 respectively. Poetic Flare also won the St. James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, while Notable Speech also won the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood.