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As the Cheltenham Festival approaches, the form guide begins to become clearer with each passing race. The Super Saturday meeting at Newbury was one of the last chances spectators got to see the big names take to the track, with the Denman Chase a main topic of conversation after an interesting race. Bryony Frost’s win with Secret Investor set her up for a great Festival last year, so it goes to show that a big win ahead of the showpiece event can do a great deal for confidence, and alter the Betdaq racing betting odds. With that in mind, let’s go through some of the key talking points from this year’s Denman Chase.

Eldorado Allen dominant

It’s been a great start to the year for the Colin Tizzard-trained Eldorado Allen, who reigned supreme in the Denman Chase with a standout performance. Having finished as a runner up in his last race at Kempton back in January, Brendan Powell must have been relishing the opportunity to get aboard the eight-year-old again to put things right, and duly delivered, looking comfortable when he pulled ahead of Imperial Aura, who admittedly started well, and then kept on well to confirm the victory.

Tizzard was delighted with a crucial win ahead of Cheltenham, saying: “He was given a great ride by Brendan again. We were pretty convinced he was a three-miler. Whether he is a three-mile-and-two-furlong horse (Gold Cup trip) is something else.

“I’m sure we will talk about supplementing him for the Gold Cup for a week or two. The Gold Cup is the Gold Cup. I would say there is any one of 14 horses who could win the Gold Cup.”

Another setback for Clan Des Obeaux

Since winning the Punchestown Gold Cup back in April of last year, its fair to say that Clan Des Obeaux has flattered to deceive in his last few races. The 10-year-old, part owned by former Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson, was forced to settle for a podium place in the Denman Chase, finishing third with a run that lacked fluency. It’s certainly another underwhelming side step if Paul Nicholls is preparing for a defence of the Bowl Chase at the Grand National Festival in April, but judging off the run at Newbury and the second-place finish to outsider Tornado Flyer in the King George VI Chase, things aren’t quite as they should be for the four-time Grade One winner.

Royale Pagaille’s performance makes Gold Cup interesting

Heading into the Gold Cup, few would have suggested the Venetia Williams-trained Royale Pagaille could affect the race in any way. After all, the eight-year-old, who came into the Denman Chase as something of an outsider, had only recorded one win in the space of a year, coming in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock back in January.

However, finishing second behind Eldorado Allen will certainly create a new dynamic ahead of Cheltenham, with Royale Pagaille’s odds changing drastically ahead of a solid performance at Newbury. Whether he can replicate that kind of run still remains to be seen, but given the unpredictability of the big Grade One races, it would be unwise to think a shock win is completely off the cards.

As they pounded up the home straight, all seemed to be going as expected. Chacun Pour Soi, the odds-on favourite for the 2021 Queen Mother Champion Chase, was in the lead and looking good, with jockey Paul Townend ready to taste yet another major win at the Cheltenham Festival.

He hadn’t accounted for a plucky 17/2 mare by the name of Put The Kettle On to produce one of the Festival’s all-time great finishes to steal the glory. As Chacun Pour Soi faded, Put The Kettle On sensed blood and made her break for the lead. Not even the close attentions of Nube Negra could prevent the eight-year-old from earning a remarkable victory.

Aidan Coleman was the man in the saddle, and he too was left to take in this horse’s achievements with awe. It was an astonishing triumph, and one of several sensational victories for trainer Henry de Bromhead at last year’s Cheltenham Festival.

It was the second year in a row that the winner of the Champion Chase had come from slightly left of field. A year prior, Politologue had made the most of a string of withdrawals to steal the headlines, taking on the mantle from Altior, who had won the race twice successively in 2018 and 2019. Put The Kettle On joined those names as a winner of one of horse racing’s most prestigious events.

“She’s a bit crackers the whole time, to be honest,” De Bromhead said of his energetic mare after that Champion Chase triumph. she’s just quite wild, but a real character. She’s nuts, but in a great way.”

To win the Champion Chase was unexpected for Put The Kettle On, but when you look at her record at Cheltenham, at the Festival or otherwise, there is a pattern of strong performances at Prestbury Park. This was the most shining example of her love of Cheltenham, and the only shame is that there were no spectators there to witness the performance of a lifetime.

With the 2022 Cheltenham Festival approaching, Put The Kettle On has an entry for the Champion Chase again, although De Bromhead could instead opt for her to race in the Mares’ Chase. The Champion Chase betting market has her at odds of around 16/1 to defend her title, and when faced with the significant hurdle of overcoming the likes of Shiskhin and Energumene, the task looks a tricky one. If she is entered in the Champion Chase, winning it will be an even greater achievement than last year.

Indeed, things have not gone too well for Put The Kettle On since that glorious triumph last March. Three defeats have followed, suggesting that the mare’s best days are behind her. Nonetheless, her performance in last year’s Champion Chase can never be erased, and that is what she will always be remembered for, regardless of what happens next.

“I don’t think anyone has ridden a tougher mare than this,” Coleman said after the race. “She had some fantastic jumps, and she just threw herself at it, and it’s a testament to her ability. If you could bottle what she has and sell it, I wouldn’t have to ride again – I’d be a rich man.”

The Kentucky Derby is fast approaching, and if you’re looking to join in the fun, then this is the best time to learn some horse racing betting strategies. The Kentucky Derby is one of the major annual events in horse racing, and it signals the start of the Triple Crown event.

There are a lot of betting strategies on the internet, but if you’re looking for ones that are easy to understand and compelling enough, then you’re in luck. This article will discuss some horse racing strategies that are not simple but will also give you a good chance of winning your bets. Here are some of them.

The Statistical Lay

To lay a horse simply means that you’ll be betting against a runner. To use this strategy effectively, you will have to find a race with ten or more runners. Once you have found one, you need to identify the three favourites for that specific race. Then, you need to find horses that have odds between 3.0 and 5.8 and lay against the one with the lowest odds possible. According to the stats, you would have a chance of winning more or less 80%.

This is because statistical analysis shows that horses within these odds have a chance of winning only 17% of the time. This means that if you lay a horse within those odds, these prospects should realize a profit because the bet’s odds are significant.

The Surface Switch

Horses, just like human athletes, have strengths and weaknesses. One factor that can make or break horses is the surface type of the race they will be running in. Thoroughbreds are either heavy-footed or light-footed. For heavy-footed horses, running on dirt surfaces can significantly reduce their speed because their hooves burrow into the dirt due to the power of their steps. This is especially true if the surface is muddy.

However, when they run on a synthetic surface type, their steps would be more potent without hindering their hooves, resulting in an increased speed. For light-footed horses, they can run in dirt tracks just fine because their hooves don’t burrow into the mud. They can also run fine on synthetic surfaces but not as much as heavy-footed horses.

Now, why is this important? This aspect is the deciding factor for the surface switch. This occurs when a horse suddenly doesn’t race on a specific surface and begins racing on another.

Let’s say that a horse has been racing on dirt for a long time but has never really excelled. Of course, as a bettor, you would ignore this horse. But then it switched surfaces and started higher in its placement.

The key to making money on this angle is that you should never ignore a horse on its first try on a new surface. An excellent way to tell this is to look if the trainer has switched surfaces in the past. The horse would be a good bet if the trainer regularly wins by constantly switching surfaces.

The Beaten Favourite

Even though a horse is highly successful in horse racing, it doesn’t mean that it will win all the time. That said, when a favourite horse is highly touted in the top kentucky derby contenders but is beaten in its last race, the weight of public opinion will be against that horse in the next race. They would think that the horse is already past its prime and will never win again.

However, it’s not always the case. When that happens, the wave of bets will be against that horse, making the oddsmaker be forced to increase the odds on that runner. This is a good time to bet on that horse because of the potential payout that you can win.

The False Favourite

The false favourite is a horse that is a favourite falsely assigned by bookmakers. They do this to fool punters who blindly back the favourites all the time. This is usually done in smaller events, but sometimes, some bookmakers do this during significant events like the Kentucky Derby. For this strategy, laying against the false favourite is the best move. Laying a favourite is a viral strategy, and when it’s done correctly, it can be very profitable.

However, take note that just like any other horse racing betting strategy out there, you need to do your research first and not just blindly lay the favourite. Of course, there’s an element of risk involved; that’s why you need to do your research to determine if the favourite is false or not. But the risk is worth it because the payout is usually significant.

Final Words

There are a lot more betting strategies you can find for horse racing. You can find them almost anywhere, but the ones listed above are proven effective most of the time. Of course, they don’t guarantee wins, and in fact, no betting strategies can guarantee you wins. But by using these strategies, you will be giving yourself a significant chance of winning the big bucks.

If you have a look at a horse racing card, one of the first bits of information that will catch your eye is the identity of the favourite. It’s clearly an important factor to consider before placing a bet, but have you ever wondered how often the favourite actually wins a horse race? Well, there have been plenty of studies on the subject, and number-crunchers have come up with an answer. Or, to put it more accurately, answers.

First, let’s give you the short answer. The favourite usually wins a horse racing around 30-35% of the time. And if you were wondering, the second favourite usually wins around 18-21% of the time. As you might expect, going down the market leads to a lower winning percentage. Please note that these figures come from an average of several different studies carried out over the last decade.

Several exceptions to this rule

And yet, we must add a caveat. The statistic of 30-35% must be viewed within the context of several different factors. For instance, some of these studies will have been conducted on the basis of having eight runners on a card. In races with larger fields, e.g., events like the Melbourne Cup (22-24 runners) or the Grand National (40 runners), the favourite has a tougher job. In the latter, for example, the favourite has only won once in the last ten runnings of the Grand National (Tiger Roll in 2019), which would put the favourites’ strike rate at 10%. Although to be clear, a larger sample size than the last ten races is needed for this kind of statistic to have meaning.

Aside from field size, there is a variety of other factors to consider. Racing is a broad church, and it differs from country to country. If you were to read Australian horse racing tips, for example, those analysts would study different elements compared with someone offering tips for (jumps) point-to-point racing in Ireland. Even at the most basic level, the tipsters would have to account for the fact that the Irish point-to-point runners must navigate fences and can, therefore, fall. Whereas, in Australia, the focus will be more on pure speed and stamina.

Dirt is more favourable to market leaders than turf

There are so many other factors to add. For instance, one study (conducted by BetMix using Angler data) found that favourites were more likely to win on dirt than on turf. We can reason as to why that is the case, as the turf is more likely to be affected by weather conditions. If you have seen horses slog through the heavy ground on a wet December in Scotland, you’ll know the race can seem like more of a lottery.

And, if this weren’t complicated enough, you can have other considerations like the handicaps. One study we have seen put the success of favourites at 32%, which fits within the range of our average. However, when this was broken down to handicaps and non-handicaps, the figures were 26% and 39%, respectively. Thus, handicap races are more unpredictable than those races where the horses don’t carry extra weight.

So, to answer the original question again, favourites win between 30-35% of the time. But there are so many contributing factors that the stat becomes essentially useless to anyone placing a bet on an individual race. It can, however, be useful to those following general trends in racing.